A couple of days ago it snowed at some of the ski resorts here in Australia!!!
It isn’t he first time it has snowed here in December but it is pretty rare considering it has been approaching 30C here on the coast.
I just wanted to know if anyone had Al Gore’s number so I could give him a buzz and let him know what is really going on in the world. It sounds to me like he is reading a few too many ‘scientists forecasts’ for his own well being. Global Warming was supposed to result in London not seeing snow…. whooops.
But since the world isn’t warming Al has renamed it ‘Climate Change’….. growing up we called it ‘weather’.
9 Comments
Matt Lenzman
Hi Dave —
One of the predictions associated with global climate change is an increase in precipitation in some areas, due to the ability of warmer air to hold a greater amount of water. As long as the temperatures remain low enough (even though the average temp is trending higher), the precip will fall as snow.
The second thing to remember is that weather isn’t the same as climate. Weather is short-term and local. Climate is long-term and more geographically diffuse.
So what you’re seeing could actually be a small confirmation, rather than a refutation, of climate change predictions.
Dave Evans
Matt,
That is what I love about thre ‘climate change folks’ – any weather can be attributed to climate change.
If there is a drought in Australia, it is climate change, if there is flooding – that is also climate change.
The ‘temperatures trending higher’ are only in models.
The ocean outside my back door hasn’t risen, the glaciers in New Zealand are growing, the glaciers in Alaska are retreating but getting thicker, Kip in Colorado is having an above average start to their winter (above average snow fall).
I don’t expect this summer to be exactly the same as last year or to follow a ‘model’ – that is why it was once called ‘weather’.
Thanks for contributing Matt.
Dave
Matt Lenzman
Hi Dave,
Actually the higher temperatures are measured temperatures worldwide, not just projections from models.
The Alaskan glaciers are doing what you’d expect from the predictions — more snowfall (for the reason I gave in my first message), but more rapid melting at the terminus (for the same reason).
The models also predict greater high latitude effects, because the highest temperatures rise occurs at those latitudes.
Because of thermal lag, you’re not likely to notice any big changes in sea level outside your door.
And weather is still weather; the definition hasn’t changed.
Dave Evans
Matt,
I’m keen to see these ‘measured’ higher temperatures worldwide. The last 10 years, from what I have read, were cooler than the 10 years previous.
Your glacial example is kind of what I hear from religious zealots – if you have good luck, it is Gods work, if you had bad luck it is God teaching you a lesson.
If glaciers are shrinking, you blame global warming, if glaciers (such as Fox and Franz Joseph which I visited 3 months ago) are growing – then you can attribute that to global warming as well.
Is there a weather phenominon which would disprove your belief in ‘global warming’? Say snow in London 2 years in a row?
My scepticism is based on what I have observed. Oceans aren’t rising and I get to snowboarding in places my Dad did when he was a kid.
You guys know I love the outdoors and I’ll be the first guy to volunteer to clean up a beach – but I’m not willing to pay a ‘carbon tax’ because of a theory which I am not convinced is true.
Dave
Luke
That’s got to be the most intellectual discussion ever in the comments section of this site.
I’m most disappointed that Matt didn’t mention with the increased temperatures worldwide that we might see increased levels of speedo use.
Matt Lenzman
First — Luke: lol!
Second — Dave: Merry Christmas to you. (And I don’t say that lightly, because I’m an agnostic.)
A weather phenomenon that would serve to disprove the theory of global climate change? No, because weather is short-term and local. Right now, we’re feeling the effects of a strong El Niño (El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation).
Where I live, that means early snows, more rain and flooding. When I first moved here in ’87, El Niño’s other side, La Niña, was in effect, and it meant an exceptionally dry/mild spring and moderate summer that extended well into the fall.
Such cyclical phenomena easily swamp longer-term global trends in any given year or sequence of years.
The term “Global Warming” is no longer the accepted term, because more sophisticated measurements and models show that while average global temps are on the rise (and yes, they are), locals effects can differ from the global average, which is why the currently accepted term is “Global Climate Change”.
Models also show the greatest near-term effects to be in the northern hemisphere, so even if you were able to filter out short-term variations due to phenomena like El Niño, you might not see much change in your hemisphere — yet.
I understand your resistance to models and the vagaries of measurements, becaue they’re removed from our direct daily experience, but they’re what we have. Our choice is to refine them and use them well, or to be blind and exposed.
In any case, this has got to be boring for your visitors and is well outside your usual focus, but I do appreciate the back and forth.
If anyone would like more:
The Scientific Guide
to Global Warming Skepticism
Now back to Speedos!
apeiron
Relevant:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5nNbPWYHOA
All in good fun. 😛
Jay
Don’t like to bang on an old topic, but I’ve read and heard that nine of the last ten years were the hottest on record. Needless to say, I don’t think that the last ten years were colder than the previous ten. Where are you getting your information Dave?
http://www.grist.org/article/past-decade-the-hottest-on-record
http://globalwarmingwatch.blogspot.com/2009/10/last-10-years-period-warmest-on-modern.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/science/earth/22warming.html?_r=1
anonomous
No Global warming is a scam in order for the government to get millions of dollars in taxes from carbon taxes. Honestly do you think that carbon dioxide (What we breath out) is going to kill the environment. But you know what Yah the climate is changing but you know what IT’S A CYCLE I mean come on.I live in California and it snowed in Valencia a while back Uh Huh climate change. LMAO whatever. Wasn’t it like the 70’s they were talking about global cooling then it’s global warming and next he changed it. Whatever Watch this and you might understand it if not too many of your brain cells have been killed off by the fluoride in your tap water. “But fluoride is good for your teeth Ya Calcium fluoride, not Sodium fluoride witch is in rat poison.” Here Watch this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm54OTiTR6E
BTW isn’t it funny the Us government told True TV to take this down even though we have so called “Freedom of speech” here in America. Watch all 6 parts of this and you’ll understand global warming watch the whole series and you will see what you were blind to before. plus also the government has a program called HARP witch can control the weather not science fiction life. please just watch the 6 parts of that video before you criticize. Thx